Monday, January 30, 2012

When do we hit the tipping point? - Survivalist Forum

When do we hit the tipping point? - Survivalist Forum
That will be the tipping point, when the federal government shuts down due to lack of funds and the government cheese runs out.

There are certain federal government functions that will continue to operate, including Congressional payroll and presumably the military without the benefit of payroll. Everyone else will be on their own and it's SHTF.

I expect an uneasy peace due in large part to armed civilians. During this period, people will continue to go to work. That won't last more than two or three weeks. Hopefully, the National Guard will prevent widespread disturbances.

The last time the federal government shut down, mortgages weren't getting processed because the GSE's underwrite most of them. Other than passports and SS offices, or you conduct business with the feds, I'm not sure anyone will notice. TPTB will be in full panic mode and on red alert. Implementing whatever emergency plans they've made, whether continuity of government or GOOD. Expect more than a few private planes to be taking off, without return flight plans.

I would expect some sort of global settlement within 2 - 3 weeks. At this point, we would be in a full blown deflationary depression, by anybody's definition. People are already surviving on government aid, and that well has been tapped. The feds have been stockpiling freeze dried rations, but somehow I don't get the idea it's going to be for general distribution.

There will have to be some sort of catalyst to get the wheels of civilization turning again. There is a significant national defense concern. We don't want China or Russia invading our shores, or armed Mexican gangs running up the Interstates. Domestic concerns are a different matter, and one can expect regional violence on the scale of Katrina or LA Rodney King riots, not dissimilar from the civil rights riots of the 1960's.

At that point it depends on what services are still available, if banking continues to operate then businesses will continue to stay open while they can. If highways are open and petrol is available, trucks will continue to deliver goods. Power and telecommunications will continue to function. People that work at these institutions shop at the same stores as you and I. That is one thing that is different than in the soviet union, except it's money that keeps everything moving. That requires the banks, and the feds will do everything within their power to keep them open. Then it just depends on how the money is distributed. Businesses won't operate at a loss very long, so they still have to be able to restock, etc. If the general economy has collapsed, no one will have any money because they aren't receiving paychecks. So much is dependent on the federal government these days, but I'm not sure how you would resuscitate the private economy. Presumably there is a critical mass, by which enough government contracts have been handed out, that the money supply is enough for the economy to start moving again. That will be the beginning of the end. After all, if the feds are going to give away contracts for nothing in exchange, why do anything. Our federal government will have failed in it's charter, and there's nothing left but to replace it and eliminate it completely from any interference whatsoever in the lives of individuals. Let judges settle matters of dispute between parties, giving favor to none, with their word being the final say. It is injustice that has led us to this point. And it will be either man's justice or God's that will save us. God speed and God help us all.

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